Lay selection is La Estrella 2.10 Southwell

Lay selection is La Estrella 2.10 Southwell, Before we look at the negatives, Lets look at the positives, Positives which have contributed to my selection been so short





Positive been that my selection got the winning habit, 52 starts, 20 wins, Total earnings £60,949, However La comes into the race back off a 167 day layoff, Above is the race record of my selection, What we call the form book, Look through the form and you will see that La has only won once after a Lengthy layoff
The racing post Nap a 2/5 shot , Based on that one time they are saying it goes well fresh, In fact if look carefully through the form you will see that it La worst performances have been in Nov-DEC , Also look at the mark La was allocated on the 5th Nov 06, Current mark is 89, improved 6Lb?,
One thing you won't see in any of the 20 wins of La and that is the word QUICKEN , You will find 3 horse that have demonstrated the ability to QUICKEN


Hamilton Result
13 Jun 2012

  HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR  

« 1 6  Pendragon (USA) EvensF 9 9-3 Brian Ellison 83 * * »
Barry McHugh
 
Made all at steady pace, ridden and quickened 2f out, kept on strongly final furlong (tchd 11-10)





 Lakeman (IRE) 7/2 4 9-9 b Brian Ellison 59 * * »
David Allan
 
Pressed leader, led over 3f out, quickened over 2f out, held on well final furlong (op 3-1 tchd 11-4)



  King Of Windsor (IRE) 4/6F 3 9-0 Ralph Beckett 80 * * »
Martin Lane3
 
Held up, headway and switched right over 2f out, led over 1f out, quickened clear, readily (tchd 8-13)



All these arrows must be doing your head in, But this is how your brain is trying to work things out, So many factors or the lets use the posh word Fundamentals, you have to work out, The logic behind this important fact is the difference between a horse who can cover 5 furlongs the fastest and a horse who can quicken in the last couple of furlongs off a slow pace. Just imagine the difference in driving automatic car to that of manual, Then apply this logic to a horse that can quicken, and one that can't  If horses had gears that the Jockey had to change, Which one would move the quicker? Automatic or Manual?



LOW KEY: If we assessed this race like the Americans do(Prize Money) Then low Key would be described as taking a disguised class drop




  DATE RACE CONDITIONS WGT RACE OUTCOME JOCKEY OR TS RPR
14Nov11   Ghl 11Sl 4K 9-4 4/10 (4¼L Star Of The Green 8-13) 3/5F Filip Minarik — * *
25Oct11   Sai 11Sft 14K 8-13 6/7 (15L Starlish 8-13) 43/10 Maxime Guyon — * *
31May11   Stb 11VSft 7K 9-2 3/3 (¾L Sandslide 8-11) 13/10F M Cadeddu — * *
10May11   Msn 10Gd 9K 8-11 2/14 (1L Oekaki 8-8) 6/1 M Cadeddu — * *
08Aug10   Hnv 10Gd 3y 22K 9-2 1/11 (¾L Empire Storm 9-6) 9/5 A De Vries — * *
18Jul10   Hmb 11Gd 3y 22K 9-2 2 (½L Mulan 8-11) 11/10 A De Vries — * *
04Jul10   Dus 11Gd 4K 7-12 1/9 (nk Abydos 7-12) 6/4 Filip Minarik — * *
05Jun10   Mul 10Gd 3y 2K 8-13 1/5 (½L Samardal 9-2) 27/10 A De Vries — * *
09May10   Col 9Sft 3y 2K 8-13 5/10 (5¾L Flying Champion 8-13) 12/5 A De Vries — * *


Above is the race record for low Key, Well I don't know nothing about German horse racing, says Norbert, We should have never joined the EU now Eastern European horses are taking over,Says NORBERT What do you think Norbert has failed to pick up in the race record of low key? The market sentiment, You don't head the market because you are crap! Also look at the Prize Money, Based on the value of the races contested, Today's race represents a big drop in class


I have not picked this selection, to impress or Kick it and hope that it will not win, This game is all about making a profit, If we wanted to give to charity then I am sure, there are more worthwhile causes, than giving it to the backers of my selection, You have a very unexposed type in Low Key, Low Key has contested some valuable races, based on those facts, La should never be the price it is, and Low Key should IMO be a 9/2 shot.Again I would advise that If you get a nice green book take it.