Saturday, 15 December 2012

Tarzan Not looking for Jane

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,Lay  Should shorten further, Because Handazan looks to have a impossible task to reverse the form, I feel he can, But I would ask you not to call the men in white coats, I know you might think I have lost the plot, But like I have said many times never be afraid to form your own opinion 
 
When I sat down to look at this race, I too thought, Na Handazan  got  no bleeping chance, Viewed the replays, was even more convinced that Handazan could not reverse the form, Then I looked at the market sentiment. HAND EV, WEST 15/8.

This made no sense, At this point I decided to visit the website of Alan King.

 We also run Handazan, Oh Crick and Midnight Appeal at Cheltenham, and the boss added: I spoke to Max (McNeill) and we have had a change-cl-mind and decided to run Handaan. The race has cut-up, and, though we have obviously got to find 12 lengths with Far West, our fellow might have improved for being gelded since he won at Aintree. 



 Had I not took the time to visit  the website, I would not have know that he was gelded after the Aintree race, Castration is not just carried out to improve the temperament and attitude of a horse, Also in the long run it dose reduce the heaviness which is associated  with pressure on the fore legs, Don't think that just because a horse is gelded, its going to help him run faster, The genetics remain the same, the horse will have his mind more on the job, But don't be  expecting him to sprout wings and win very easily, He will still have to work hard to beat  Far West.


 Why do you think he won  well on the 8th of June? Tap-Tap- Tap- OK do you give up? You might be thinking the heavy ground? Hmm yes, But that's not why,



No distractions from females, This is the point where I thought you might call in the men in white coats, But before you do, lets look at the races where he ran badly, After this impressive he then ran.

9th July Race
Here, In this race there were 5 Fillies  In the race that Far West Beat him, 2 distractions were present, Acht ran very close to him through out the race, When Acht dropped away, So did Handazan   Desire to run, Even his win on the 28th Oct, was somewhat laboured, Here again there was a distraction in the form  of Rosie, Not her from Coronation street.





Some of you might laugh, But lets assume that you are in the mood for it,( Hope you don't want me to spell it out), You all worked up, Would your mind be on the paper work that you had to finish off, Or on you know what? I hope you don't say paper work, Sorry to repeat myself, Horses are not machines, They too have desires like you and I, Like we can get easily distracted, So can horses, Today the race is  a lady free race, If Haz  dictates the pace I can see him sending West East, Keep in mind that today its proper heavy ground which should suite Haz more than it would west,  this is not a 2 horse race, Tidal  way, could be suited by the stiff uphill Finish




Tuesday, 11 December 2012

Bounce could be a factor, Billy don't be a bleeping hero

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                I forgot to mention the Bounce, Bounce Factor
                                   

Sunday, 9 December 2012

One, Two, Buckle Will Fall







    
 2:20Lingfield (AW) LAY HARRY BUCKLE Price at time of writing-1.69-1.70( Norbert Value)



Without doubt Humungosaur looks very good value once rated 94, 3rd Oct  20011 the market  made him Even Money fav, against the likes of Sir Graham Wade current mark 104, Cherry Street( Winner)  83, Quixote  Finshed some 8l behind Humungosaur, Current mark 83, Winner of 3 races, His form of 06 Sep 2012, Is strong in context of todays race, Finished 2nd (NK)  Lastofthemohicans Finished 4th  some 5L behind Hum, Lastofthemohicans  on his second start, ran in a group 2 race, Beaten just over 9L by St Nicholas Abbey, Besides that form, Lastofthemohicans has won on the aw,


HARRY BUCKLE  I feel is been campaigned  over the wrong trip, I think he needs dropping back to 7-1m , If I was the owner of Harry I would not consider him to betting proposition  today? So I would talk to Norbert my trainer and say, Odds look shit today what do you think? Or what can you do?  Wink  Wink, Say no more.

SYNCOPATE, Could improve for the step up in trip, First time out KF was booked and he was the 7/4 market leader, Must have been showing something at home?













Saturday, 8 December 2012

QUITO DE LA ROQUE QUITO DE LA ROQUE,


QUITO DE LA ROQUE   QUITO DE LA ROQUE,  New phrase adopted  by Dell Boy, Only Dell type punters will be latching on to Quitio,  From viewing the replays I came to the conclusion, That my selection needs  a robust Jockey, This will be the first time that Niall P Madden  is on board, If the (Racing post records are correct) He has never  ridden  a winner on UK soil, I am not going for the place to earn brownie points, I am very confident that my selection will not be placed. The automatic selection to beat QUITO DE LA ROQUE, Will be ACROSS THE BAY, Across the Bay thrashed Sarando by 46L, The same horse ran was beaten by Quito a Nk, With Wayward Prince some 6L back in 4th.

But life is not that simple,  If you  view the replay  of  the race which Quitito  beat  Sanrando , You will see that the race was full of incidents/ errors, and if you took the time to view the replay you will hear the commenter, Say that  Wayward is picking, That comment was made  near the end of 3m1f  fast run race, Wayward did make a number of mistakes, However the fact he was seen to be picking up should be seen in a positive light, I think  Across the bay should  set a good pace, This in turn will help Wayward Prince, Staying with that race, It must be noted  Prince  was fitted with first time visor.


In the 2.15 Lingfield  Hepworth  looks extremely over priced at 1.96, I feel Hepworth is a listed class runner, running in class 5, Ran very well over a trip which was way too short, I think you could get a good green book, Should trade around 1.65-1.59 at some point, I would say confident win bet, But what is the point of been confident on a odds on chance?





13:05 Aintree

To Be Placed - Saturday 8 December 4 Runners
 
Timeform
PLACE- Matched: GBP657
Going In-Play
 DisplaysBetfair's Starting Price (SP)options. Singles bets placed at SP are settled at Betfair's Exchange Starting Price, which, unlike other bookmakers, is calculated by balancing SP bets and exchange bets at the time the event starts. SP bets cannot be cancelled once placed. 

Aint 8th Dec

2 TO BE PLACED206.6%BackAllLayAll187.6%
Quito De La Roque
Niall Madden
Across The Bay
Jason Maguire
Wayward Prince
Jack Doyle
Calgary Bay
Paddy Brennan




















Friday, 7 December 2012

Pace is the thief, Punters the victims,

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Second Video  rendered  for my friend ED- IPhone, Your so super market ED, Wasn't sure If this format would work on Blog, Hence 2 for the price of 1!!, Hope its OK for you ED


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Wednesday, 5 December 2012

My place lay 5.20 Kempton


Place Lay Kempton his Morning I was somewhat shocked, That My learned friend Mr X, Said that his sources had phoned him, and told him that Avatar Star would be Held up, I was already looking at the race, It was not a case that I wanted to steal my friends thunder,My intention was that I wanted to put off my friend from investing on Star, With all due respect to his sources, I think they have got this wrong. Let me explain why. Below are the details for the Sire, Read the highlighted detail, 10-12F is not today's trip, Would you not think because of the pedigree, The ideal way to ride Star would be from the front?  We all know that it is extremely difficult  for a horse to come off the pace, Especially with the pedigree of Star, Martin Lane got a very good strike rate  for the owner,he rides BEAU SELECT, When this horse is ready to win, You will see Martin Lane on board, I  also Feel Star could be better handicapped, On viewing replays,I thought he would not be able to give the weight.

Avatar Star
Adam Kirby

2012 STUD FEE: EUR 12,500 
  • 18-y-o ch horse (10.4f) AEI 1.30
  • PEDIGREE: Nureyev (USA) (8.0f) — Peinture Bleue (USA)  (Alydar (USA) (f))
  • STANDING: Coolmore Stud (IRE)
  • SIRE COMMENT: outstanding 10-12f 3yo, can sire smart autumn 2yos and progeny progress well
  • TRAINER: A Fabre
  • OWNER: D Wildenstein
  • BREEDER: Allez France Stables