One race 2 lay selections

Today, One race 2 selections Lay
Bookies are not in the charity business, Otherwise it could be a clear cut case of Dutch the front 2, Profit no matter what the result, They know the winner will come outside of the front 2, I also am very confident that the winner will come from outside of the market leaders




These numbers put off the punter from looking outside the front 2, Based on the numbers you would be forgiven for thinking that Focail Eile, got no chance,The pundits will say if this were a handicap, I think Focail got a great chance.

pton (AW) Result
06 Jul 2011

« 9:20HOTHOUSE FLOWERS HERE 03.08.11 HANDICAP

• (Class 6) (0-58, 3yo+) 1m Standard
• £1,617.25, £481.25, £240.50, £120.25

WATCH RACE - 20p

• RESULT
• RATE RACE

Hide all comments in runningShow all pedigrees

			HORSE/SP	AGE	WGT	TRAINER/JOCKEY	OR	TS	RPR
«	1  13		Focail Eile 14/1	6	9-2	John Ryan	58	*	*	»
						Kieren Fallon
			Held up behind leaders, progress over 2f out, burst through to lead over 1f out, soon ridden clear, in no danger final furlong
«	2  4	2¼	Fitz 4/1J	5	9-2	Matthew Salaman	58	*	*	»
						William Buick
			Held up on inner, gradually dropped to rear of field by halfway, good progress on inner over 2f out, driven to chase winner just over 1f out, no impression (op 9-2)
«	3  5	¾	Ermyntrude 15/2	4	9-1	Pat Phelan	57	*	*	»
						Ian Mongan
			Held up towards rear and raced wide, shaken up over 2f out and no progress, driven and ran on over 1f out, went 3rd last strides (op 7-1)
«	4  9	nse	Starwatch 13/2	4	8-11	John Bridger	58	*	*	»
						Harry Bentley5
			Settled in midfield, effort over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on final furlong, just lost out in battle for 3rd (op 7-1 tchd 11-2)

The above is a race which Focail won last year, At face value it doesn't give you any confidence for today's race, Won off a mark 58, next 3 were rated in the high 50 range , Starwatch is a stronger indicator that Focail is up to winning today's race, Before we move, I would like you to keep in mind the number 58, and for one minute, discount the 5lb claim of the Jockey of Starwatch


Look at starwatches current mark, That is a very strong factor why I feel Focial could beat the front 2 in the market.


TERACE CONDITIONSWGTRACE OUTCOMEJOCKEYORTSRPR15Jun12  Goo 7GS C4Hc 5K9-71/6 (1¼L, Moretta Blanche9-4) 7/1Kieran O'Neill84**11Sep11  Goo 8Sft C4Hc 4K9-81/8 (½L, Tilsworth Glenboy8-11) 9/1Sean Levey82**18Aug11  Eps 9Gd C5Hc 2K9-51/7 (1L, Veiled Applause9-0) 4/1Sean Levey76**08Aug11  Wdr 8GS C4Hc 3K8-131/8 (½L, Ree's Rascal8-13) 6/1Neil Chalmers70**30Jul11  Lin 7GF C5Hc 3K9-41/7 (nse, Hawk Moth8-12) 7/2Sean Levey67**23Jul11  Lin 8Gd C6Hc 2K9-31/15 (3¼L, Kielty's Folly9-3) 9/1Sean Levey58**09Sep10  Eps 6GS C53yHc 3K8-131/9 (1L, Flouncing9-7) 13/2Neil Chalmers66**29Jul10  Eps 6Gd C43yHc 4K8-21/6 (¾L, Flouncing9-1) 20/1Neil Chalmers60**

I agree that Focials form has taken a downward curve, Most people will not be able to give you a explanation, why?, I can, Change of stable, Left John Ryan on the 7th July 20012 to Tim Pitt, Left Tim Pitt and went back to John Ryan on 24th Oct 20012, 4 of its 5 wins were gained under John Ryan, It could be that the horse was homesick, and now back to familiar surroundings, he could hit form again.

DAY OF DESTINY :Is very much unexposed on the flat, Only one run, that was way back in 2007,In fact last won a race, over the sticks in 2007, I think he did quite well considering his pedigree, The reason I feel he's not progressed in NH racing is his pedigree, Will have to be sharp to win over 1m, But maybe the ground could help him.
If push came to shove the strongest lay selection would beST MORITZ