12:20 » Ayr MON 2 JAN 2012 NUTS N BOLTS Lay-

SUPER DUTY Looks Slightly over priced at 1.89-1.90  I can see Duty Shorting to around 1.68, My selection on the other hand looks too short at 2.14 really should be trading around 2.68 mark. Super Duty as over time matured or should I say Filled out, I viewed the replay of his first race and thought he had a whole lot filling out to do, When you look at him now there is a world of difference, The good thing about Super is that he can win held up or from the front, This small field will be to his advantage, Not so for bolt.

The Market as got over excited by the fact that South Leinster  who finished second  to Nuts  won yesterday by  18L, I would ask the market to take a step back and see what Leinster beat by 18L,First of all he was the  6/5 fav for that race so it should not come as a surprise that he won, Now let’s see what he beat.1

South Leinster (IRE) 6/5	7	10-12							115	—
«	2	18	Runswick Relax 100/1						6	10-5	—		—
«	3	25	Rudemeister (IRE) 16/1						6	10-12
«	4	16	Golden Call (IRE) EvensF						8	11-5	—
«	5	20	Plenmeller (IRE) 100/1						6	10-12
«	PU		Awareiness (IRE) 33/1						6	10-12

The price of the second needs no further clarification from me, But let’s look at the Even Money Gold Call-4 wins to date 2PTP 2 under rules, 3 wins were gained on GD ground, Only one win on Gs which I feel he got away with because it was a PTP race, In the above race the going was soft, So you could say maybe Gold was not suited by the soft ground, Keep in mind that Gold is trained by Donald McCain. Bookmakers are going to be playing mind games with punters in this race, They Know punters are going to get over excited by the fact that the second come out and won, They also know that most punters are going to be wearing Blinkers, By that I mean they are not going to bother looking at what the odds on fav  South Leinster beat that day.What Will happen that they will try to get the lazy money on Nuts, They will not mind offering a bit of value for Super, Once the lazy money  dries up then they will push Nuts out and shorten Super.