Sunday January 1 2012 Cheltenham 1:05 SONOFVIC Lay
No I am not suffering from the after effects of hard night of partying, What I am about to tell you as to why I don’t think Sonofvic will win might make you call your other half over and say –Here Luv look what this clown saying about this horse, She/ or He will peak over your shoulder and just like the old Philadelphia chesses advert she will say Lovely , But before you call her or him over let the race finish then do so.
I have always said that you should spend time viewing replays, They really do help you build a better picture, I know it is very time consuming because afterwards you still have to go through other factors, On this one race I have spent the best part of 2 hours, If I get it wrong you could be thinking what a Bleep waste of time, If I get it right you will soon forget that I put in 2 hours of hard graft and just bask in glory of collecting.
So what was it that was so usual that has taken me a eternity to spill out? My selection will be beaten by the position of the running rail, Yes that’s right the positioning of the running rail is going to reduce the chances of Sonofvic to win, If you look through the replays of his races you will see that he does need the running rail to help him, But the running rail as to be placed near side not far side, In one of his races the running rail is placed far side if you look carefully you should notice that he tries to head to the near side, His jockey as to correct him.
It goes without saying that laying Sonofvic just on the position of the running rail would be foolish however it still is a strong factor which I doubt very much if anyone else as picked up, If this was showing Jumping then INVICTUS would win hands down every time, I can see him been a gold cup winner sometime in the future, Bold statement I know but he does seem to have that class factor, Not only can jump but he also as the speed, For a horse to have both qualities over this kind of trip should be seen as a positive.
The one to spoil the party could be SOLIX, He’s what I would describe the Buster Douglas in the race, No one gives him a chance because of his jumping, A horse that can win after making hash of things in good class races should not be dismissed, You should think along the lines of, Well if he can overcome difficulties and still win then what could he do with a error free run? On his French form Solix as a very good chance to win,
16 Oct 2010 He won a grade 3 Hurdle race in France, The 3rd Prince Oui Oui gives some substance to Solixs form ,This horse beat Kauto Stone just over 1L, Stone was only beaten 8L by the 177 rated Sizing Europe in the TINGLE CREEK, On that form alone Solix should be able to beat my selection.
You will have seen that I have not mentioned trading today, although I do feel that my selection should drift out from 2.24 out to 2.68 I do feel that the market sentiment could still be hanging on to Kauto Stars victory rather than SonofNorberts ablity.
If I may I would just like to go over yesterday’s selection -31 Dec 2011, I gave Elton Fox as a lay because I thought Avenging Ace could beat him, I always Like to go over the ones that I get wrong, Not to cover up errors of judgement but more for learning purposes, Most yesterday were of the opinion that Avenenging lost because of the first time tongue tie, I am for one think, he lost because he does not like to race alone, in other words he likes company without company he sulks or gets frightened like a lost child, If you look through the replay of his races you will see he travels very well when he is surrounded by other horses, Only when the Jockey kicks on dose he lose that initial rhythm. One for the note book.
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