selection

The element of luck, bad thought out judgement and chance occasionally upsets the best and soundest of calculations, However, in the long run and over a period of a given time a sound and competent security analyst will surmount these setbacks and on balance end up with a sizable profit, It is simply a case where knowledge pays off,

FRI 2 DEC 2011Lingfield 12:40 MISS ASTRAGAL Lay/ Trade3.3.05

Her SF drops from 74 over 8f on soft to 39 over 8f on aw (faster ground), VICKERS VIMY is the one that I feel will beat her, Not a stab in dark or lets  kick it and see what happens assumption, My selection was beaten by Rhagori( trained by R.B.), Ralph Beckett will have a good idea where he stands with Miss Astragal, On paper Vickers looks stronger than my selection- (92,000gns vendor Y); first foal; dam second over 7f AW at 2yrs, half-sister to high-class 6f-7f winner Diffident and to the second dam of Zafeen, out of smart half-sister to Breeders´ Cup Mile winner Opening Verse.

I do feel that Astragal will be vulnerable to less exposed types; She has been beaten three times by first time starters, once by a 100-1 chance, I think she could take a big walk in the market, I would not be surprised to see her drift out to around 5-6

- 12:50   Sandown FRI 2 DEC 2011 TRAITOR Lay/trade 1.83-1.84

I have a very strong conviction that his most recent race would have taken its toll on my selection, which in turn will have a adverse effect on his performance today, View the replay of that race and you will see that the race was run at a frantic pace, I don’t think that 20 days will be enough for him to recoup, Even if he was coming into the race after a three month break I would still take him on.

I think at the business end of the race he will tapped for speed, Along with the fact that inexperience could find him out, MALANOS- The after race comment by whoever WG is from the RP, I feel were rather insulting to Malanos, He won that race even though he self handicapped himself by running awkwardly, In my eyes that was a gallant win considering that was his first try over hurdles, Mr  W.G commented- MALANOS, a regressive maiden on the Flat for another yard, rated 62, looks an awkward ride. Anchored in last, his jumping was risky at times and he showed a marked tendency to hang right. He gainedthe upper hand on the run-in but will struggle to follow up outside claiming or selling company. Mr G.W I really do feel you should go to speck savers, I can’t see how you reached upon the conclusion that Malanos will not win outside selling company, Malnos is a horse who likes to  front run, On this occasion  he was held up, Some horses tend to sulk when they don’t get their own way, I would ask you Mr G.W to view the replay of that race again, You will see that when Malnos did get the lead he strode out with some purpose, Also you will see that he is a fine specimen of horse, I hope (I think he will) he wins today so that I will be vindicated.

Sinadinou second beaten just over 2L- Came into the race back off a 25L beating, Most recently was beaten over 3L in a selling hurdle race.

Cordillera third- beaten over 9L- Cordillera was coming into the race back off a 42L beating in a class 5md

The Absent Mare finished 4^th  she gives the form a little bit of substance, She was coming into race back off a run on the AW, She has won since but not over the sticks.

 Taking into  account the class  of the opposition he beat, I feel my selection should drift out from 1.83/1.84 out to around 2.48, Extreme prediction?  No I don’t think so, The next 2 in the market are able contenders to beat my selection, Both of them could  use their flat speed to good effect, I can see my selection struggling to hold on for a place.