12:00 » Aintree SAT 3 DEC 2011 CINDERS AND ASHES LAY- Trade 2.22-2.24Could drift out to.2.80,
Cinders I feel performs better on stiff tracks, Tracks with uphill finishes which almost always find out the pace setters (Posh word speed horses). His worst run to date was at this track, Aintree is a very sharp track (bit like me) where speed is the call of the day.
Punters often get sucked in by the hype, The Hype today is that my selection was unlucky not to win last time out, The Professionals (No Norbert not bodie and doyle) on the morning line will tell you the same, They just can’t be bothered to think outside the box, Why should they put in the hard work for punters when they can get away with churning out BS and still get paid. Let’s look at the race in which Cinders was deemed to be unlucky, I think we should focus on the horses that finished behind my selection rather than the winner in that Ascot race
Dance Tempo 50/1 shot Finished 4th , First try over sticks would not have been suited by the ground or track, One win to date on fast ground on a sharp track, came into the race back off 59L beating over 12f on soft ground.
Ted Spread 4/1 4TH a decent performer at 1m4f-1m6f on the Flat with a current BHA mark of 104. He Jumped well enough, had every chance two out but could not race on from there I don’t think he stayed. He did appear to collide with my selection at the fifth flight, which could have affected him.
Double Ross 5th was taking a big drop in trip which on breeding would not have suited, came into the race back off a 12L beating.
By now you should be on the same wave length as me, Yes my selection did blundered badly and yes he did well to finish second, the anti climax – I don’t feel we should read too much into that run, The horses that he passed most were trying the trip for the very first time, quite a few would not have been suited by the track, The Pundits have created a illusion/ Mirage for the benefit of the bookmakers, This Illusion should be shattered by Keys.
Keys has beaten my selection, If you have the time to view the replay of that race you will find, That my selection (Cinders And Ashes) was hit with the whip 9 times, Keys only once, He was considered to be a possible Champion hurdle horse by previous connections, Keys trades at 2.58-2.60, I can see him shorten to around 2.30, ILE DE RE In running should trade much lower than his current price of 13.50 at some point he should touch 5-3
12:10 » Wetherby SAT 3 DEC 2011 FLEMI TWO TOES Trade-2.98-3 Should shorten to 2.78-2.60
Won like a improving horse last time out, The form book tells you what factor contributed to the improvement- The step up in trip is the answer, QUEL ELITE the second in market I feel will drift from 4.90-5-20 out to around 6.80- My assumption is based on trainer/jockey form,
1:55 » Sandown SAT 3 DEC 2011 AL FEROF 1.55-1.56 Lay
I think no horse in the race will beat him, Sandown’s Rail way Fences will, Apart from that I feel punters are getting over excited, If you are going to back him on that sole chase win then you will get what you deserve, Astracad was beaten over 7L by my selection, Champion Court rated 124 also beat Astraced by 14L, Champion court as since then off 134 beaten 10L by Grands Crus who was made heavy weather of it to beat Sonofvic rated 1
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