selection Wed

2:40 »  Lingfield (AW) WED 7 DEC 2011 CRISTAL GEM Lay- Trade 1.59-1.60 should drift out to 2

The  price of my selection reflects the weather, Why do I feel Gem should drift out to 2? You have 2 other horse in the race that have winning form, Then you have a 50-1 shot JOE M  who is racing further than 5f for the very first time, PRINCESS KAIULANI has been running as though the step up in trip will suite.

25Nov11  -over 6f- Soon pushed along in rear, ridden over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, never troubled leaders

31Oct11  - over 5f-           Soon outpaced, moderate late headway, never neare

06Oct11 –First run- over 6f-Held up, headway over 1f out, never on term

Today she steps to 7f, The form tells you that the step up in trip should suite,

Coming back to my selection, Who did she beat when winning for the first time?

1              2½           La Romantique – Was stepping down in trip which I feel would not have suited, since beaten in handicap company over 7f, The close proximity of 50 rated horse to her should be a negative to the backers of my selection today, I don’t feel backers would have analysed this point.

nse          Remix (IRE) 9/2- Also the Victim of  The Name is Don, On this point alone my selection should drift,        Remmix was stepping up in trip,Also I feel she was somewhat over raced.

None of the horses from that race have gone on to win a race, do you still feel there is some value in backing Gem to Win? I hope your answer will be no,  Also we must take into account that unless the stables made some kind of arrangement for her to stay with Richard Hannon until today, Barring this arrangement we could assume that Gem could be unsettled by her new surroundings,

Trading- Like yesterdays selection I can see my selection drifting out to 2, Should the price go our way then we should green up, I am confident that my selection can be beaten.