12:40 Fontwell TUE 6 DEC 2011 SECRET EDGE LAY- TRADE- CURRENT 1.54-1.55 POSSIBILE DRIFT TO 1.80.
It’s the bookmakers who have the Edge over punters who are backing a horse that should be EV money at 1.59,The old adage that horses are not machines bodes well to this race, Let’s look at the race which my selection won, On the 28 Oct 2011 he beat Country wide Flame, I would say it was a hard fought victory, I have always held a firm belief that a horse that wins in this manner as less scope for improvement,2 weeks later my selection ran at Cheltenham in a grade 2 race, If the first race did not take its toll then I am very confident that the Cheltenham race would have,
COLEBROOKE on the other hand won his race by 41L, I would say that Colebrook as more room for improvement than secret, Jackies Solitaire was beaten by Colebrooke(41L) yet Jackies managed to beat Secrect by IL, I’m very much aware Jackies was receiving 12Lb from secrect,They did meet again in that Cheltenham, This time secrect did finsh in front of Jackies, But only by the distance he was beaten by her last time out, ( Not much improvement)
We must keep in mind that this is not a two horse race, We must also keep in mind that the going will be on the heavy side, Horse find it difficult to carry big weights on soft ground, So don’t be surprised to see the winner come from outside the front two in the market, HI NOTE already the victim of Colebrook could reverse the form, On this soft ground if he is given a soft lead then he would be a hard one to reel back in, REGGIE PERRIN best form on the flat as been on soft ground, his two runs to date over sticks have been on good ground,
Trading- I’m somewhat dismayed that he is been supported at ridiculous odds, Maybe later when logic prevails over idiocy we could see him drift out, Logic is centred around Jackies, Will the market cotton on to the logic? I’m quite confident it will, The odds compliers will be rubbing their hands at punters backing a EV money chance at 1.54-1.55
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