Dot Cotton On tour

1:00 Newcastle FRI 26 OCT 2012

Dotties Dilema Peter Buchanan

1.76 £40

1.77 £3

1.79 £11

1.82 £11

1.87

All 3 wins to date have been in small sized fields; DOTTIES DILEMA is unbeaten in three point/bumper/hurdle runs and could be hard to beat under a penalty for his recent win at Hexham. Comment of the Racing Post- Now when you go buy a house, do you just buy it because it’s got a roof, and windows? Of course not, Because it’s going to be one of the biggest investments you will ever make, You going to make sure you do you’re research, Ok let’s take it down a notch, Would you buy a car, without taking it for a test drive? Would you not make out that you are an expert car mechanic, by lifting the bonnet, remove the oil cap and look for something that you don’t even know what you’re looking for! Or wiggle a wire, but not quite knowing why you are wiggling it for, Of course you would, so why would you not apply the same kind of effort in analysing the chance of dot winning or not winning?

Let’s look at the first race dot won which was a NHF race, over 2m on soft ground, Track testing,

She beat  Rinnagree Rosie  a 6 year old just over ½, Rosie no relation to Kevin Webster was coming into the race back off a 25L beating, She went on to  be beaten 27L in her next race, Kevin was not happy, Witness In Court was the 6/5 fav in that race, one win(PTP) over 2m4f on GD ground, So you could say that the conditions were not right for court(Ground, trip), The most important factor been, that most of the runners were  not race fit.

 The above race was on the 05May12, he then come out on 05Oct12 to win a class 4 race over 2m, soft ground, Track stiff, 6 runner affaire, Prior to winning in May his last run was in a PTP race  in Feb, What is the time line telling you? Maybe that Dot is a horse that needs time between his races?  In that case maybe, he coming into this race too soon? Ok what did he beat ( I know Norbert he beat horses!)

Full Speed German bred, finished 2nd beaten 1½,, 34 starts, 4 wins 3 on fast ground one on the AW, No wins over sticks,  Morning Royalty was the 7/4 Fav in the race, Winner of a NHF race in Ireland, Look at the running comment of that race-

Made all, went clear from early straight, driven right out and kept on well (op 6/4) now look at the running comment in Dots race.

Held up in touch, steady headway before 3 out, ridden and weakened before next (op 15-8 tchd 9-4)

RIDDEN WRONG WAY IN DOTS RACE.  Also mornings form tells you he would have needed the race

HEROSTATUS, Should be able to give Dot a race, I would not be put off by his recent run on the Flat, I think that race was used to blow away the cobwebs in preparation for today’s race, There is a negative factor, his ability to handle the ground, Malcolm Jefferson runs FIRTH OF THE CLYDE, He through various form lines, should have a idea where he stands with Dot.