Already 5/6 with some firms this morning, The form looks good, only Joking after all it is April 1st, The form does not warrant my selection been a 5/6 shot(With some firms) If I was looking to back a horse in this race I would be looking for a horse that made its debut on a grade 1 track not for a horse that made its debut on G4 then is making his seasonally debut on a G1 track. The Warwick form where my selection finished, I feel is form of little value, We are looking at a class 5 md, Where my selection had a good draw, Famous Poet winner of that race had the benefit of a run, could be seen as a positive, But the big question you have to ask your self’s, In this big field of runners could you find a horse who would be able win say a class 3 conditions race? Let put it another way do you think my selection would be up to winning a class 3 conditions race? My own opinion is that no I don’t think my selection could win a class 3 conditions race, and yes there are horse in the line up who would at least be up to winning a class 3. Let me address the why I don’t feel my selection could win class 3, Famous Poet who beat my selection just over 2L was himself beaten 5 L( previous race) Whipcrackaway 3rd bad draw-(E1,000 vendor F), E5,200 Y resold £4,500 Y; 2nd foal; half-brother to 2m hurdle winner Louisville Lip, placed 7f-1m4f Flat inc AW; dam well beaten only start over 1m in France, out of 5f (Listed) to 6.5f winner Desert Drama Whip has managed to win, but not on turf, 8f Kempton class 6, Soon after the race in which Famous Poet beat him,(my selection finished 2nd) Whip was beaten 9L in his next race by Cristal Gem, Current mark of Gem is 77, I would put Gems class range in the 6 range, I could not see him winning anything above class 5. As I write the Naive punters have pushed down my selections price
I should not worry about other people throwing their money down the toilet, Why should I it’s their money let the idiots line up the pockets the bookmakers, You got first time starters who are making their race course debuts very late, This I feel is more to do with the fact that they might have need more time to mature/ come on or due to ground factors. Today I feel I have demonstrated my ability to identify the class range of a horse who has only one run to date, Not a easy task but a task that can be achieved if you are willing to look at the bigger picture, Not many people in the industry no matter what resources they have at their disposable or what university degrees they might hold would be able to what I have done. By looking at the bigger picture I feel the class range of my selection would be no better than class 5 Handicap company. SEQUOIA on the other hand would be well up to winning a class 3 conditions race,2 runs to date both at grade one tracks, Ascot, Newbury, Both those runs were over 6f, where my selection runs at the same distance(7f) Seqoia steps up in trip, So there is room for improvement, How I reached the conclusion that she would be up to winning a class 3 is very simple. 26Jul11 she Finished 4th of 12 beaten 3L in a CLASS 2 RACE- The winner of that race Moustache won a listed race in Italy (£24,137.93,) Moustached achieved a mark of 80 on the flat over here,In France he was just beaten in a listed race(£22,916.67,) SEQUOIA Ascot run is much stronger, Again over 6f class 3 He finished 4th of 7, which most will not place much value on, However he was only beaten 1L by Moon Pearl current mark 98, Gerfalcon 2nd current mark 98, Nawwaar 3rd current mark 86 but won next time class 3. On these form lines it should be Sequoia who is the market leader not my selection, I would say 5/4 would be a more realistic price for Sequia, Unless one of the newcomers is exceptional Sequoia should win by a wide margin. Yesterdays Selections. I have always believed that unshakable belief is what you relay when you speak or convey thoughts to people. The stronger your belief, the more people you will influence. When your belief is strong no matter what anyone says, you will not get knocked to the ground and your journey will be much smoother.On my blog you see this heading but not all of it, I have the rare distinction and pleasure of being a leader in the field of education. Though the subject I have specialised in might not be included in the curriculum at Oxford or Cambridge. Picking winners or losers in racing is very much like trying to buy the right investment securities, The element of luck and chance occasionally upsets the best and soundest of calculations, However, in the long run and over a period of a given time a sound and competent security analyst will surmount these setbacks and on balance end up with a sizable profit, It is simply a case where knowledge pays off, The same principle holds true for picking winners or losers in racing The bad luck I had yesterday that Western was pulled up, My strong conviction that African would not win was built on the foundation that that Western could beat African, I still stand by that, I hope one day these 2 meet again, Very confident I will be Vindicated, Castle Well that’s racing, A horse that touches 45 in running and then comes and wins is what dreams are not made off. I did make a small profit yesterday, Mr D who as followed me for 11 months will testify to this fact, I gave a place lay in the 4.20 Doncaster for Sir Graham Wade, also couple days before I said on Twitter that SYT will not win, I’m not telling you all this to tell you what a great guy I am, Or look what you missed out on, When I get one wrong the snakes start to come out the wood work, When I get 2 wrong the snakes bring their dads a long to join the fun in throwing abuse, This game is all about long term, Although I am showing a very health profit people just dwell on the one result, They don’t look at the good run at Cheltenham, they don’t look at the fact I gave 1/7 shot that got turned over, They don’t look at the fact I said a horse would lose because the time of the race was not right, And when I said the older the mare the less quality her eggs will be people were Gob smacked!! I’m very confident in my ability but the question I asked myself is it worth takeing all this crap from low life’s? The answer is no I don’t. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday, 1 April 2012
Selection
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