| Wolv 30th Mar - 19:55 6f Class Stks | Matched: GBP 23,768 |
| Back & Lay Market Depth Betfair Starting Price (SP) | |||||||||
| |||||||||
| 2 £60 | 2.02 £30 | 2.04 £171 | 2.06 £5 | 2.08 | ||||||||||
You ever asked yourself what is a false fav? You ever listened to the so called professional tell, We identify false fav, Some never tell you why they think a horse is a false fav, I once told Norbert about identifying false favs, He spent 3 hours at the local police station waiting for someone to show him a line up, In the end he was locked up for loitering with intended.
Winter Hill is quite stoutly bred on her female side I really do feel she would better over further, Three Valley her Sire has hardly set the world on fire, when you view the replays of her races you can’t help but notice that she is a big leggy filly, I can understand why all her runs to date have been on galloping tracks, Now that she is 3 I doubt very much if the tight turns at Wolverhampton will suite her, Plus she has not run for over 230 days you have to ask yourself will she be sharp enough(Keeping in mind that she is a big Filly and the fact she is stoutly bred).
When I say she appears as been leggy I feel it is important to understand the true definition of Leggy, This term is usually means a horse is above average length of leg in relation to its height. In comparison when you view the replays of DERIVATIVES you will see a shallow girthed horse with a good back side,
DERIVATIVES: I feel as been found guilty without been given a fair trial, 10 starts 0 wins hardly inspires confidence, usually I would call a horse like D a sucker horses, Because punters keeping backing these sucker horses in the hope that tonight Mathew I’m going to be a winner, I for one am going to side with D today, First important factor which you should take into consideration is the owner- Owner H R H Princess Haya Of Jordan I don’t think the trainer will want to disappoint the princess too much, If I was in the shoes of the trainer I would be thinking, My god if she don’t win today then I’m going to look like a right Kebab, Then you have the small matter of - 2012 STUD FEE: GBP 75,000 Below you will see pictures of both Sires, The first one is the sire of D, The second Sire of Winter.
To me it seems that the Sire of D is Mike Tyson and the Sire of W is Richard Dun who looks the more productive?
There is one more factor which I feel is very important, What I am searching for is power horse, By this I mean a horse that can take up the lead say 2F out and maintain a even Keel throughout, To make this a fair contest, We must not take into D recent form and compare that to Winters form because of the advantage D will in terms of fitness, So we will go back and analyse the 2 year old form of D and W ( Norbert it’s not wd40 or UB40).
26Jul11 winters win over 5f- Bev Stiff track- Went left start, in touch on wide outside, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead just over 1f out, driven out – She Managed to lead1F out had to be driven out.
10Nov11 DERIVATIVES: Over 8F Kemp-Keep in mind we are looking at 2 year old form and the longer distance-
Raced wide early until led after 2f and crossed to rail, kicked on over 2f out, at least 2 lengths clear 1f out, folded and headed last 100yds This was a very good effort considering D was only 2, She was clear 2L if out, To me she is more of a power horse than Winter, She showed stamina and has also shown speed( Recent runs over shorter)
More than anything I am very disappointed with the negative comments that D has received, These comments prove that most people have not even bothered looking at the facts.
16 Mar 2012 Chased leaders, ridden to chase winner inside final furlong, no impression (op 6-4) I showed her Kempton run(2 year old) Where she made all the running, Both these runs she was given the wrong kind of ride, 27th Feb not only the wrong type of ride but she was taking on older horses.
27 Feb 2012 1½ Derivatives (IRE) 6/4 3 8-7 John Gosden 70 53 54
Held up, raced keenly, switched left and headway over 1f out, ran on to dispute 3rd post (op 11-8 tchd 5-4) In this race D was drawn wide and was given the wrong type of ride, But the most import factor is that she Finished behind older horses, The race was won by a 4 year, Second 5year old,
Ok still you think D is a Donkey and all this talk of her been given the wrong tactical ride is neither here or Clacton on sea
07Dec11 - Her run in France over 7f on AW- Broke smartly on outside, soon took clear lead, led into straight, switched towards stands' rail, soon under pressure, headed over 1 1/2f out, stayed on final furlong, rallied close home to take 3rd on line Soon took clear lead, I hope you can see why I feel Tonight could be D night, We shall see.
Figure 1Iron Mike Tyson
Figure 2RICHARD Dun
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