Warw 21st Mar - 14:20 2m5f Mdn Hrd

Warw 21st Mar - 14:20 2m5f Mdn Hrd

Matched: GBP 4,732

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Selections:  (9) 104.1% Back Lay 98.2%

4 Oscars Secret Sean Quinlan

1.74 £115

1.75 £403

1.76 £48

1.77 £106

1.79

Not clear cut as the market suggests, the price of my selection is a big drop from the 100-1 he started in his only start to date, In fact I am very disappointed that Punters would even consider backing a horse at the above price when the market in its previous race priced him at 100-1.

The first thing we must do is look at his running comments in that race.

Running comment: Held up, lost place and pushed along after 6th, struggling 3 out, kept on nicely past beaten horses from 2 out, promising (MY FOOT PROMISING)

Kept on nicely past beaten horses- Let me repeat the beaten horse’s bit- Beaten horses.

The conditions that day would not have suited quite few of the runners, the ground was soft, But a more important factor been there was a strong wind, When you view the replay of the race you can hear the wind, that’s how strong it was.

What I would like to do is take out the first 4 in that race and assume that Oscar won the race, let’s have a look at the horses he beat.

  1st Oscar's Secret

2^nd Bedouin Bay 3L- 4 wins from 24 starts, 1 win was in France on gs over 13f won by nk, 3 wins over here were all on fast ground, I would say he would not have been suited by the soft ground over the longer trip, Was conceding weight to Oscar.

3¾ Dramatic Duke Winning form on GD ground (PTP) No wins under rules, Conditions would not have suited (Soft ground)

2 Faultless Feelings   If you look at Feelings form you will see that he is not suited by soft ground,only one PTP win to date and that been on GD ground, Look at the distances he gets beat when he runs on soft ground.

	DATE	RACE CONDITIONS	WGT	RACE OUTCOME	JOCKEY	OR	TS	RPR
	31Dec11	War 25GS C4HcH 3K	11-5	5/14 (24L Bellflower Boy 11-0) 16/1	Giles Hawkins	115	32	107
	08Dec11	Hun 21GS C4NvH 4K	10-9	8/16 (23L Hit The Headlines 10-12)16/1	Giles Hawkins	—	37	96
	23Mar11	War 21Gd C4MdH 2K	11-1	5/11 (20L Sweet Irony 11-1) 7/4	Rhys Flint	—	66	93
	06Jan11	Hun 21GS C4NvH 2K	11-6	2/15 (12L Radetsky March 11-6) 8/1	Richard Johnson	—	91	112
	29Apr10	Tip 18Gd NHF 4K	10-11	8/20 (7¼L Our Only Option 11-7) 10/1	Mr Josh Halley	—	76	91
	07Feb10	Bel 20Gd/Y 4yPTP	11-7	1/5 (6L Banksandditches 11-7) 4/7F	Derek O'Connor	—	—	85

 

1½ Bowdler's Magic- Again look at the conditions that Bowdlers won under, 34 starts 4 wins, All 4 wins on the flat on fast ground, No wins over 1m6f, The soft ground would not have suited the distance would have been beyond him.

2¼ Italian Master Another one whose winning form (PTP) is on GD ground- Would not have been suited by the soft ground, First run under rules possibly     needed the race.            

6 Tickatack  The only runner to finish behind O to have winning form under rules, The conditions were right for him, was priced at 125-1

So these are some of the horse that O passed, I hope you see that he passed a group of horses that were right up there contesting the pace, The conditions would not have been right for most of them, The so called experts don’t look at the bigger picture, They over hype horses like O so the public steams in.

LEATH ACRA MOR:  I feel will beat my selection, Here again we must think outside the box, below you see all the runs for Leath to date. There is something very important which most Pundits are not going to pick up, Look how many runs (Start from the 29^th dec) It took Leath to show some credible form-The answer is 3,  This year he has only ran twice, Beaten out of sight both times, But just back track to his previous runs you will see the same pattern took place, What the form book is telling you that Leath needs a couple of runs to get him fit, The form book is also telling you that the fast ground will suite, His last 2 runs can be ignored on the account of distance( too short) and the ground( Not suited by soft)

 

DATE	RACE CONDITIONS	WGT	RACE OUTCOME	JOCKEY	OR	TS	RPR
	26Feb12	Tow 16GS C4NvH 2K	11-2	8/13 (38L Sunny Ledgend 11-1) 25/1	Dougie Costello	—	6	76
	15Feb12	Sth 16GS C4MdH 2K	11-2	6/13 (26L Lemon Drop Red 10-7) 28/1	Dougie Costello	—	—	86
	24Jun11	Mar 17Gd C6NHF 1K	11-2	3/12 (½L Must You Go 10-13) 9/2	A P McCoy	—	24	109
	28May11	Str 17Gd C5MdNHF 1K	10-8	4/14 (17½L Douchkirk 11-0) 12/1	Paul Bohan	—	58	90
	13May11	Ain 17Gd C5NHF 1K	11-2	7/8 (12½L Seedsman 10-12) 11/1	Jason Maguire	—	—	87
	29Dec10	Nby 17GS C5NHF 1K	11-2	16/20 (77L African Broadway 11-2)66/1	J