Kemp 17th Mar - 14:15 3m Nov Chs | Matched: GBP 8,556 |
Back & Lay Market Depth Betfair Starting Price (SP) | |||||||||
| |||||||||
| 1.99 £10 | 2 £18 | 2.02 £11 | 2.04 £12 | 2.06 | ||||||||
What are the Fundamentals in this horse not winning today? The Pundits are saying that he will be suited by the quicker surface today; let’s look at his speed Figures, His best speed figure to date is 117 recorded on GS, GF= 87, GD 43, GD 43, on winning form on Gd he recorded 102, 102, 54, the 117 was recorded on GS (Won).
Ok let’s assume that the SF cannot be relied upon to give a true reflection on my selections chance in this race, we should then move on to the weight factor. Green represents winning form, Red Represents the number of times he lost, Just like a forex chart there is a pattern, This pattern is telling you that my selection performs better carrying 10st+ but under performs in the 11st range, The last time he won carrying 11st+ was in 2009.
Maybe these Fundamentals outlined so far don’t really give you much confidence, Ok let’s move on to his most recent win- Won over 3m (Doncaster) Gd ground carrying 10-9- Running Comment-Led, took keen hold, went well clear after 3rd, almost joined 4 out, stayed on well from 2 out (op 9-4)
Your really have to view the replay of that race to give you a better picture, The way he come back to field tells me that he might not see out the race today on this sharp track, Plus he will have a fight on his hands for the lead, The Big question we must ask, Is for a horse who has not stood much racing in the past, Will this horse be able to withstand strong challenge for the lead? Will he trying to fend off the challenge take its toll?
Staying with that race let’s see what he beat. The Cockney Mackem finished second beaten 5l, Cockney to date as only won a NHF race, Aikman Finished 3rd gives the form a little bit of substance, However it’s the second Finisher Cockney who in my opinion makes the whole form worthless, Here you have a horse that to date, As only won a NHF race over 2m, Cockney did run well at Cheltenham, Finishing second in a G2 race, However we must keep in mind that Cockney as gone up 17Lb without winning a hurdle or chase race, Just one of those horses who always runs a good race but is never quite going to make it.
The most important factor I feel is, that my selection fits the profile of horse that has been lightly raced not through design but through the fact he can’t stand much racing, Punters backing him will not even consider this factor, not because they have seen it and decided to ignore it, No because most will not have seen it.
DATE | RACE CONDITIONS | WGT | RACE OUTCOME | JOCKEY | OR | TS | RPR | |
Don 24Gd C4Ch 3K | 10-9 | 1/8 (5L The Cockney Mackem 11-0)100/30 | 130 | 102 | 140 | |||
Lei 24GF C4NvCh 4K | 11-0 | 2/6 (5L Loose Preformer 10-9) 9/4 | — | 87 | 135 | |||
Hun 24Gd C3NvCh 5K | 11-2 | 3/7 (19L Wayward Prince 11-2) 3/1 | — | 43 | 120 | |||
Ain 25Gd C1HcHG3 28K | 11-5 | 12/21 (46L Ringaroses 11-0) 11/1 | 135 | 102 | 101 | |||
Chl 21Sft C2HcH 31K | 11-3 | 6/24 (13½L Pause And Clause 11-10)16/1 | 130 | 101 | 125 | |||
Don 25Gd C2HcH 11K | 10-11 | 1/10 (6L Galaxy Rock 10-8) 9/2C | 125 | 102 | 135 | |||
Tau 25GS C4NvH 3K | 11-5 | 4/13 (37L Voramar Two 10-12) 6/1 | 125 | 77 | 127 | |||
Hun 26GS C4NvH 2K | 11-5 | 1/12 (4L Dream Garden 10-12) 9/4F | 130 | 117 | 130 | |||
Chl 21Sft C1NvHG2 17K | 11-4 | 5/9 (48L Tell Massini 11-0) 11/1 | 130 | 75 | 115 | |||
Lud 21Gd C4NvH 4K | 10-12 | 122 | 54 | 135 | ||||
Chl 22GS C2NvH 10K | 11-0 | 4/7 (32L Bensalem 11-8) 11/1 | 122 | 39 | 102 | |||
Mar 20GS C4NvH 3K | 11-2 | 2/13 (shd Phoudamour 11-9) 100/30 | 114 | 112 | 119 | |||
Tow 16Hy C4NvH 3K | 11-4 | 2/10 (3½L Neil Harvey 11-4) 5/2 | 114 | — | 112 | |||
Nby 19Sft C4NvH 3K | 10-12 | 7/16 (26L Bakbenscher 11-5) 14/1 | — | 78 | 92 | |||
Aut 18VSft 4yH 15K | 10-6 | 2/12 (¾L Quello Malta 10-10) 2/1F | — | — | — | |||
10-3 | — |
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