| Current Odds bets | ||||||
| Lay (Bet against) | Backer's Odds | Backer's Stake | ||||
| Creekside | | | £0.00 | |||
| | You are betting AGAINST Creekside to win. | |||||
1:40 » Ludlow
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,478703,00.html This is the link to the race which my selection won, View the race and asks yourself if someone was selling Creekside as a company/ asset would you buy? Me personal would run a mile .When you view the replay of the race pay close attention to the second horse Uncle Bryn, Look at the amount of hard work the horse puts into the race, He’s pulling hard throughout the race as well as cutting out the donkey work, The race its self creates a illusion, The illusion been that it looks as though Creek won comfortably.
Don’t be fooled by what you see, Look at the bigger picture, Bigger picture been that had man from Uncle had a more relaxed race he would have won, Keep in mind the weight that Creekside carried that day and look at what he’s carrying today. Also a important factor is that Uncle ran off a very moderate mark on the flat 56-60, on the other hand Creekside was running off the 102-105 mark, Had that race been a flat race then we would be saying that was a very poor performance by Creekside.
SO IS SHE priced at 14-1 I feel is the value in the race, Look through her form and you will see a pattern emerging, The Pattern is a bit like the silly safe style window ad, You buy one you get one free, In this case it’s you run once over 1m then you win over 2m, 09Nov11 she ran on the aw over 1m2f-finshed 5th-15Nov11 she won Novice hurdle by 6L, 24Sep11 again ran on the aw over 9f, Finished 3rd 02Oct11- Finished a credible 2nd to Alf Ramsey in a class 4 handicap, Coming into today’s race her previous run --- That’s right you got it on the aw over 8f, The pattern is there but I know it won’t be picked up by many, This is where professionals get the edge over none professionals . There is more to So IS SHE. On the 15 Nov 2011 she beat a horse called Bernisdale just over 6L who in turn had previously beat Residence And Spa who was beaten only 3L by Royal Bonsai Winner of a Grade 2 race at Doncaster, Bonsai current mark is 130.
As you can see my selection is not just based on a wing and prayer, although there are times when I have had stopped blood circulating to my hands because I have grasped them so hard when looking up to the sky for divine invention, The reply I got from above was- I told you that would win.
Black is beautiful also merits close attention, 2 runs to date, Look at the running comment of his run over 13F on soft ground- Led early, remained prominent until lost place 6f out, outpaced 4f out, progress from 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, not pace to reach leaders
Few positives can be taken out that race- He lead early, remained up there with the pace, Then lost his place, but then stayed on again, So will this longer trip bring out improvement? Well the running comments tell you yes. I personally think that my selection should drift out to around 1.85, IR he should touch 2.20 very early, Again if you get the chance for green take it. The amount of work I have put into this race should tell you that I am confident that it won’t win, how you handle your investment is down to you, I can only do so much. This Comment was not conveyed to the people who I work with, only for people reading my blog and the Norbert’s
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