12:30 » Taunton TUE 20 DEC 2011 SWINCOMBE FLAME Lay- 1.52-1.53-
A extremely false fav, She is rated 123 the second Fav ELEGANT TOUCH as already beaten Bessie Lou rated 123 by 32L just on that bit of form it should be Touch who should be market leader but not at 1.53, Ev would be more of fair price, Swinecoimbe should drift out to at least 1.90, But if the market fails to pick up on some important factors then I could be way out on my prediction on the price movement.
Again we have to go through the laborious task of Forensic form analyst, 90% of punters wont go to all this trouble, Maybe the 90% will be right in not doing so but I know there is a 90% chance of them been wrong. Let’s see what my selection beat in her most recent run.
02 Dec 2011-13 Edlomond (IRE) 16/1 – Below is Edlomonds previous form
-24Nov11 Tau 20Gd C4NvH 3K 10-7 4/8 (19½L Watergate Bay 10-9) t 20/1 Tom O'Connor — 67 91
29Apr10 Her 17GS C6NHF 1K 10-9 2/9 (16L Scoter Fontaine 10-12) t 11/1 Mr O Greenall — — 82
27Mar10 Str 17Sft C5NHF 1K 10-4 5/15 (8½+L Skint 10-9) t 16/1 Tom O'Connor — 21 82
04Mar10 Lud 16Gd C5NHF 2K 10-5 2/10 (7L Carribs Leap 11-2) t 25/1
3 1¼ Blue Blooded 50/1 ( 50-1 shot) Not good previous form
07Nov11 Her 20Gd C5MdH 1K 10-12 10/12 (89L Cotton Mill 10-7) 33/1 Nick Scholfield — — 39
23Oct11 Wcn 16Gd C4NvH 2K 10-12 4/4 (39L Adrenalin Flight 11-5) 9/4 Nick Scholfield — 16 67
09Apr11 Ban 17Gd C5NHF 1K 10-11 3/9 (7¾L Super Duty 11-1) 11/2 Jeremiah McGrath — — 91
23Feb11 Don 17GS C5NHF 1K 10-9 12/17 (31L Malt Master 10-7) 6/1 Jeremiah McGrath — 27 75
19Nov10 Mus 16Gd C5NHF 1K 11-8 3/12 (11½L Bygones In Brid 11-8) 11/4F
4 9 Champagne Rosie 50/1 ( 50-1 chance) Look twice Rosie was a 100-1 shot
17Nov11 Wcn 22GS C4NvH 2K 10-5 UR/11 (Rolling Aces 10-12) 100/1 Andrew Glassonbury — — —
01Nov11 Exe 17Gd C3NvH 4K 10-5 9/15 (39L Jump City 10-12) 100/1 Andrew Glassonbury — 72 88
05Apr11 Exe 17Gd C6NHF 1K 10-2 5/14 (20L Golden Gael 10-9) 22/1 Nathan Sweeney — 59 91
We will stop at the 4th horse, You should be able to get a clear picture that my selection just beat a Bunch of Austin Allegro Horses Do you still feel she is a fair price? Ok if you are not convinced read on my brothers (and one Sister)
Jockey Bookings
I kept fonts big deliberately- Could it be that the trainer doses not think she will win today? Makes you wonder, Nick Scholfield has never ridden for the trainer before, there are 4 Jockeys at the track who have, These Jockeys have a very good strike rate for the trainer/owner,3 Jockeys James Reveley, Daryl Jacob and Will Kennedy have ridden my selection to victory all 3 are at track side today, You would have thought that surely you would book a Jockey who as won on the horse before? Or could it be the booking is made in the hope that the connections get a better price? Or maybe a late switch is the plan who knows.
Besides these factors you have I take the view that the most recent race she won she beat a moderate bunch of horse, Look at her defeat you will see that when she was seriously challenged she struggled, The trainer sees her more of a chasing type, I think the the trainer feels that my selection will not be able to beat the second Fav, otherwise I’m sure he would have booked Noel Fehily who as a 57% strike rate for him
Most of you will be bored by my long winded write up, I hope that is not the case, I treat every race with the same thought and logic that I would apply to say the Derby or Gold cup, I hope to some my write ups have been beneficial, I put in a lot of time consuming effort, and you know what makes it more satisfying than just making the money? That I have made other people money and that I was not afraid to go against the market.
On closing I would like to whish you all a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year
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