Trade

12:30 Kempton MON 21 NOV 2011DARLAN: Trade Current price 1.34/1.35  

HARRY LE FISE LAKE would have been my first choice to trade, currently priced at 23/28 on Betfair this morning, Absence of liquidity on Harry turns my attention to Darlan. The gulf in prices of the two is way out of line, especially when you consider (my opinion) that the form of Harry as more substance than that of Darlan.

Darlan without question won like a horse with great potential, the race he won was run at a very sedate pace so we must ask the question, how many horses in that race might have been inconvenienced by the lack of early pace? I have viewed the replay of the race umpteen times my conclusion is most of the runners if not all.

The value of the form can be further downgraded when you take into consideration that the pace was set by two moderate horses Driftwood Lad, A first time starter priced at 25-1, Patricia’s Pride also a first time starter priced at 33-1 lead for about 4f, Let’s look at the running comment of Darlan- Held up, headway 6f out, led over 3f out, clear over 1f out, very easily-  To most the running comment makes no other assumption other than Darlan won very easily, To me his running comment suggests that maybe he would be better over further?

It’s not every  day that a stable see its horse win by 46L, When they do they often like to make some sort of comment, In the absences of the trainer stable staff make some sort of comment, Even a small comment like did you see that, In Darlans case no after race comment was made.

Trade

I feel my selection should drift out to around 1.50/1.60; the market should take into consideration the pace of the race and the class of opposition he beat that day. The more astute layers might agree with me that he would be better over further, HARRY LE FISE LAKE could trade around 5 IR,