Sthl 2nd Feb -2:30 1m Sell Stks

14:15 Wincanton

Hopeful Start Maurice Linehan

1.79 £6

1.8 £14

1.81 £20

1.85 £4

1.86

 Could be  backed on name alone, Thousands of punters across the country will be backing this horse because  they are banking on a Hopeful start, If there is a decent pace in the race this horse will not win, His win was in a slow run race-6m 48.30s (slow by 55.30s)  Look through all his races  and you will see that in fast run races this horses in the words of Vicky Pollard well loses, Look at his 2 Hurdle wins  -27Feb10-6m 55.70s (slow by 79.70s)- 20Mar10-  6m 5.90s (slow by 35.90s) Total SP 111%

There is also a very strong pattern that emerges from the number of days between his races, He is better with a average gap of 30 days between his races, Today he comes into the race after a 10 day break, Take the time to look through form you will find it too.

There are 5 horses in the race that have the form to beat, 2 that have a very strong chance to beat him are CHARMING LAD and CEEPEEGEE, The former been the stronger Meeting called off NEVER MIND NEXT.

Sthl 2nd Feb - 14:30 1m Sell Stks

Roedean Franny Norton

1.63 £37

1.64 £129

1.65 £112

1.69 £2

Done Nothing wrong, The form looks good? Na, The form is nothing special nor is the price, Lets look at her first win

20Jan12 she beat  Laugh Out Loud Sh, Negative- Laugh out loud was a first time starter, Falcon's Reign Finished 3^rd  also first time starter,Burnhope Finished 4^th, was coming into the race back off 10L beating, Baileys Strider was the 2-1 fav, trained by Mark Johnston, again a first time starter, who would not have been suited by the 7f trip, went on to win over 1M next time out, Dilizan 6^th 40-1 shot also first time starter,50% of the runners in that race were first time starters, Still Looks Value?

30Jan12   Second race- beat Devote Myself by NK, again first time starter, Complex gives the form some substance, But Look at the replay of that race, Complex is a very very small horse, In fact Roden could have carried her and still win,

SAMASANA would be the I would fear the most, 2 good runs at, so that  will be a big advatnge, Lets take a look at her running comments-

Steadied start and held up in touch, headway 3f out, challenged on inner 2f out, ridden and every chance when carried left over 1f out, not much room and kept on same pace inside final furlong (op 7-2 tchd 4-1)

Tracked leaders, headway 3f out, not much room and switched right well over 1f out, ridden to challenge approaching final furlong and every chance until no extra last 50yds (op 4-1 tchd 5-2)

You can see that she did not have much luck in running in both those races, Had she had trouble free runs she could have won, So you could say that is running off a much lower mark than present. OUTLAW TORN looks the value in the race, Look at the manner of his victory at Kempton,

Steadied start, took keen hold off moderate pace, dropped to rear and pushed along towards outside from over 2f out, strong run from over 1f out, led final 120yds, won going away  This makes better reading than the running comments of my selection.

Over the past few months I have been telling you how hard it is to make this game pay, Below is a article from the Guardianhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/feb/01/british-horseracing-authority-stewards-non-triers?CMP=twt_gu

Look at the comment made by Mr Neesom who works for RUK

Neesom would also prefer better regulation but adds: "I do think the game is relatively straight, given how much it costs to keep a horse. There are ways of getting it handicapped without cheating.

"You just run it over the wrong trip or on the wrong ground, at the wrong course or with the wrong riding tactics and you leave it to punters to see through that. As long as the horse is ridden vigorously, there's nothing wrong with that, it's part of the game. There's a certain amount of gamesmanship but how else are you supposed to get a horse back to its right handicap mark?"