3 trades one race

12:10 Musselburgh FRI 25 NOV 2011, GULF PUNCH, ONIZ TIPTOES, VELVET VIC Trade

12:10 Musselburgh FRI 25 NOV 2011 GULF PUNCH Trade

A quick scan of the race made me think that Gulf Punch should win, I looked through the form of the other runners and thought to myself they got no chance, These kind of quick scans are made by fellow punters throughout the country day in day out, This kind of approach of approach does not work it’s the quick way to the poor house. After the quick scan I switched to deep scan.

The very first negative point I picked up was that for a 4 year my selection must be one of the most over raced horses in the country 40 starts to date 41 with pending run, Then my scan revealed to me that me that all her wins to date have been on left handed tracks. All wins to date have been between June-July.

There is a  time series pattern to the form of my selection, This time pattern is centred around the number of days to win, This pattern is present in both codes(Jumps/flat) The pattern indicates(bar one race) that she is better when her races come in quicken successions

21Aug10    Nab 17Gd C43yH 3K  11-0  1/8 (½L Beyond 11-12) p 8/1  Jimmy Derham  — 38  103 

 18Aug10    Her 17Gd C43yH 2K  11-0  4/7 (10½L Destiny's Dancer 10-10) p 9/2  Ryan Crawford  — 14  75 

 18Jul10    Nab 17Gd C43yH 3K  10-9  1/12 (1½L Sassanian 10-12) p 5/1  Peter Toole  — 35  90 

 11Jul10    Str 17GF C33yH 5K  10-8  4/10 (33L Beyond 11-4) p 6/1  Peter Toole  — 37  70 

29Jun10    Str 17GF C43yClH 2K  10-0  1/10 (17L Anchorage Boy 10-4) p 3/1F  Peter Toole  — 92  93 

 25Jun10    Mar 17GF C43yH 2K  10-2  6/14 (5¾L Torran Sound 10-12) 9/1  Peter Toole 

The above pattern is self-explanatory, you can see that this pattern dose not confirm today’s race, However I would not advise her as a lay selection, Because the opposition to her on paper looks very poor, Bar ONIZ TIPTOES the only runner in the line up who as proven form over 3m, I think in this race we should be able triple trade to compensate the risk associated in laying.

GULF PUNCH Current price 3.35-3.40 should shorten to around 2.78 The logic behind the move that Gulf did well to win on soft ground, Her best form to date as been on fast ground, Today she will have ideal ground conditions, Although I have listed whole sale negatives I do feel others will have to improve to beat her, IR I do feel she should hit the 1.80 mark

ONIZ TIPTOES 6-6.20 should come in for support on strength of proven at distance into around 4.25

VELVET VIC 7.50 -7.60 could take a big walk in the market, out to around 13.50-16