Extr 23rd Oct - 14:40 2m1f Nov Hrd
|
Matched: GBP 15,800
|
Back & Lay Market Depth Betfair Starting Price (SP)
| |||||||||
| |||||||||
|
1.75
£94
|
1.76
£12
|
1.79
£64
|
1.8
£387
|
1.84
£40
|
1.85
£39
| ||||||||
The value in the race is DOM LUKKA
|
9.2
£2
|
9.4
£10
|
9.6
£5
|
10.5
£19
|
In order to make this game pay you really not only do your homework But also you have to think outside of the box, Thinking outside of the box I visited the website of Dom Lukkas trainer, Just for the record Lukka is not connected to Chelsea!, The purpose of visiting the website was to see if I could pick up any useful information, A comment made by Charlie Longsdon caught my attention
Monday 15th October 2012
SOFT GROUND
The soft going of the last couple of days has certainly caught a fair few of ours out. Especially yesterday at Ffos Las where Ridgeway Poppy and Newton Tonic had the field really stretched when making bad mistakes three fences from home and then really struggling home in the conditions - if it had been better going they would have probably got away with it, but not on the tiring ground of Ffos Las. It just shows how all of ours are needing their first runs (Laveroque being another clear example) - last year they got away with it on the better ground, but you need to be really fit first time on the ground this year. A few have their second run of the season this week so it will be interesting to see how them have come on.
We do generally have a lot of good ground horses, so it has become a frustrating start to the season - too many seconds and not enough winners!!!
From these comments you can learn a lot, First of all the trainer is telling you that a horse has to be really fit to win first time out on this ground, You could apply this logic to my lay selection (Not run for 181 days), There are 2 factors which make Dom Lukkas the value in the race, The first is that he’s got jumping experience, The second he’s won on heavy ground in France, The negative been match fitness got to be taken on trust. I’m sure the trainer would have put in the extra work with this horse, also in the yard he’s got a horse that he seems to hold in high regard, again this is something I picked up on the website.
Wednesday 17th October 2012
Pure Style was the unluckiest of our horses. Under a penalty he ran a great race to be second. He just bumped into a very good one of Jeremy Scott's. It would not have mattered if we had had a penalty or not we would have never beaten him. But our boy is definitely very above average and will go Novice Hurdling.
It could be (Thinking outside of the box) that Dom Lukkas worked on par with Pure Style or even better, also the trainer dose have some kind of line into the stable of Jeremy Scott,
The numbers tell you that this is not just a 2 horse race, Some value can be found in
|
22
£5
|
24
£5
|
25
£3
|
28
£5
|
29
|
Yes The Italian Yob has been beaten by Melodic Rendezvous, There are 2 things which you should keep in mind, First one is the age, and second is the running comment, Let’s look at the running comment of the Yob. Just take your time and read the running comments of both these horses pause---------------- Ok Now you have had taken the time, Bar Norbert who already backed Melodic, You should come to the same conclusion, That been, The Yob was right up there contesting the pace, and was headed by Melodic inside the last 3F, On the other hand Melodic just took his time, He let the others cut out the donkey work, then pounced in the last 3f, The words Pushed clear, Get Norbert very excited, However I would ask you to take into consideration that he looked impressive because the pace setters were cooked.
The Italian Yob: Pressed leader until led 12f out, joined and ridden over 4f out, headed inside final 3f, stayed on same pace final 2f (op 16-1)
Melodic Rendezvous:
Mid-division, steady headway 5f out, led inside final 3f, pushed clear over 1f out, easily (tchd 8-1) |
If you Applied Speed figures to this race, Then BASIL FAWLTY would Pick the fav up and win this, Melodic best speed Figure over NHF is 70, Basils on the other hand recorded 90, But I don't feel SF are accurate tool to use in this type of race, I have given you my opinion on this race, It could be that the fav Melodic bolts in, That’s part and parcel of this game, However there is a very good chance of a good green book, My selection is very poor value, I do feel that he should drift out to around 2.40-2-58, I have by design not commented on the second Fav MR MOLE, Because it’s a too obvious choice, McCoy/ Paul Nicholls will be the factor why my selection should drift and Mr Mole shortens
No comments:
Post a Comment