Wednesday, 11 April 2012

Selection



Nott 11th Apr - 14:10 5f Nov Stks
Matched: GBP 15,438 

Going in-playRadioToteRace Card
Back & Lay   Market Depth   Betfair Starting Price (SP)
Selections:  (4)
101.5%
Back
Lay
99.2%


1
(2)
Pat Dobbs
1.9
£42
1.91
£27
1.92
£13
1.94
£64
1.96


Richard Hannon is the reason why a vast majority of punters will be lumping on to this horse today, I’m not going to wish them good luck, Not because I have some personal issues ‘but because these punters will be too lazy to look at the bigger picture, Quite a few tipping services will be giving this out as the best bet of the day, Their contacts have told them its flying at home, or they will not hear of defeat.

The edge that I have on the market is centred around the breeding, I spent the best part of 2 years educating myself on the breeding side of horse racing, When a short priced first time star would get beat I like the rest of my fellow punters would scratch  my ( No Norbert not them) head and ask how the bleep did that get beat.


In breeding there are 3 lines of breeding

Inbreeding,: Which is centred around the breeding of closely related horse( Brother sister)


Linebreeding: When horse are related through  ancestors  but are closely related to each other

Outcrossing: When is centred around  horses who are not related to each through the first 5 generations.

I found through my research this morning(2 hours) that my selections Sire  dose well  with  Northern Dancer mares,



£66,000; 10th foal; half-brother to 4 winners, including Destinate (6f at 2, stayed 1m, RPR100), Fiza (11.6f & 2m hurdle, 74) & Principal Witness (1m5f AW, 79); dam 1m4f winner, sister to useful 2yo sprinter Painted Madam & prolific 6-8f winner Downland

Looking at the comment of the pedigree there is no reference made to 5F, Red highlighted horse’s only sprinters, and The price tag of £66,000 is shared by two people, and This is where we have to think outside box.

THINKING OUTSIDE THE BOX: In doing so I assume that somewhere along the line one of the partners realized that it was a mistake to invest so much in my selection, Maybe this had something to do with the selections home work, or maybe something that the trainer pointed out, How did I reach this conclusion?


Until the 10th the April the ownership was Justin Dowley & Michael Pescod, The Current ownership is Michael Pescod& Haddock N Chips- Joke- Michael &Justin, Could it be that Justin was the one who invested more money, But for some reason he is not happy? Maybe he went into the Partnership on the advice of Michael, Who to keep the peace offered to buy a bigger stake in the Horse?


On breeding DREAMY CIARA looks a bargain, Really does come out on top, My one reservation would be the Jockey booking, YES TWO also stands out on breeding, I feel the race will be fought out by these two.




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