| Newb 23rd Mar - 14:10 To Be Placed | Matched: GBP 1,146 |
| Back & Lay Market Depth Betfair Starting Price (SP) | |||||||||
| |||||||||
| 1.92 £7 | 1.95 £3 | 1.96 £3 | 2 £20 | 2.04 £3 | 2.12 £37 | ||||||||
| 1.66 £4 | 1.71 £9 | 1.74 £7 | 1.77 £45 | 1.78 £18 | 1.79 £2 | ||||||||
| 1.3 £166 | 1.45 £2 | 1.5 £26 | 1.53 £43 | 1.55 | |||||||||
YOU CAN DO STRIGHT WIN LAY IF YOU WANT TO.
Green is my lay selection, My prediction is that he should finish around 6th-8th , If the price reaches 2.76 -2.78 then I would recommended a straight lay. My own feeling is that the race will be won by outsider 16-20-1,The ground conditions are a big factor, The going is given as GS which quite dose not tally with the recent weather conditions, Today is supposed to be the hottest day, So the going could be more on the Gd side than GS.
Why the going will plays a important part of my form analyst today, Is based on the notion that quite a number of horses would have not run because of the soft ground, They would have been readied to run on better ground.
Also there are horse in the line up who have won NHF races, WHERES THE HARE priced at 50-1 on betfair, The P in his form will put off most punters, However when you look at the bigger picture you will see that he won his NHF race on GD, Was priced up at 11/10 that day, The P appeared in his form line on soft ground-
| 30 £3 | 42 £2 | 50 £4 | 60 £2 | ||||||||||||||
| 15.5 £3 | 18.5 £6 | 19 £2 | 20 £3 | 23 £10 | |||||||||||||
Royal commission looks the value in the race; All 4 runs to date have been on soft ground, my selection was beaten 6L by Poole Master, Royal was only beaten 3L.
FIGHTING FLYNN: Was well beaten in a G2 race, however we must look at his previous run, where he finished 2nd to Hadrian’s Approach,
WILD RHUBARB: A very big price(50-1) fits the profile of a horse whose trainer has waited for the better ground,9 starts 1 win(Flat) over 15f on fast ground, was brought down in her most recent run on soft ground in a class 3 novice hurdle race.
CURTAIN RAZER: I feel is a very strong contender, Not run for 111 days, The same kind of logic could be applied that the trainer has waited for the better ground, Good form on gs but pulled up on heavy. The Booking of Timmy Murphy on the big outsider FRIENDSHIP BAY merits close attention, Winner of NHF race on GS, but what really stands out that he is an 8 year old that has only had 5 starts to date, Missed the whole of 20010-20011 season made his come this year, even though he was well beaten, He deserves some credit for that run, Keep in mind he was coming into the race after a 2 year layoff, Then take a look at his running comment-Took keen hold, pressed leaders until led 2nd, headed 3 out, Not bad at all, So with that run under his belt he could run a big race at a big price.
You will see from today’s write up that my selection faces some strong opposition, Most punters waiting outside the bookies today will not have gone to such deep form analyst, In fact most punters who are going to be using the exchanges will not look past the first 3 in the market, When they come down to the 33-1, 50-1 shots, they will not even bother to look at the form.
We're all human and everybody makes mistakes I am no different. A lot of times it just doesn't matter, but when there is real money at risk for most of us, it does matter. If you are one of the lucky ones who can afford to throw money away then this wont to be applicable to you probably won't matter to you, but for the rest of us, this is important. Is it just a fact of life that everybody will eventually lose, A very small % consistently win? I don't mean win every day, I don't think anyone does that, but I do mean that they win enough over the long haul to be ahead and not have too many losing days or weeks.
The important lessons which must learn and that is we must not hang on to our losing ways in the hope that somehow they will automatically they become winning ways. It is human nature to keep doing something even if it is hurts us because it is something we are comfortable with, Just like we don’t want to get rid of a old pair of shoes because the new ones don’t offer that same comfort, But we know that through the passing of time the new shoes become just as comfortable as our old shoes.
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