Thursday, 9 February 2012


Wolv 9th Feb - 14:25 1m1f Hcap
Matched: GBP 19,519 

Going in-playRadioToteRace Card
 Back & Lay  Market Depth  Betfair Starting Price (SP)
Selections:  (10)
102.7%
Back
Lay
98.6%


4
(8)
Luke McNiff
1.95
£22
1.96
£54
1.97
£2
1.98
£36
1.99
£22
2
I get asked quite often what should you lay for, This is a very tough question to answer, It’s hard enough giving the selections even tougher giving take outs. Look at it this way, If I knew that every one that read my blog was in the super premium league I would say lay it for 3k If I was working for a big hedge fund I would say 10K, If I knew that all my readers were betting with money they could afford to lose, and they were not going to suffer because I got it wrong then I would say £250-£500 but I don’t know anything about the people who follow my advice or read my blog hence its hard for me to give advice on that front. I hope you can understand where I’m coming from, Could you give advice to your best mate, Could you say to him/her lay it for 1k? And if you got it wrong how would you feel? In this game there is no room for sentiment, Or should I say gamblers don’t give a Bleep if you was unlucky or not, Like yesterday on my second selection I traded out at 30s just a gut feeling I had there was no way I could convey this feeling to you in such a short time span near impossible,

I have never been felt this much confidence about laying a horse for a very long time, What I am expressing to you is my inner feeling when I looked at this race, By me expressing such confidence does not mean that we take leave of our senses and go all guns blazing only to be shot down by jockey mistake (Other Jockeys) bad luck in running( Other horses having Bad). First we must look at the trainer,  The last time he had a winner on the flat was way back in 2009, But more importantly I would like you to take a look at his blog There is no mention of Benath, But he is hoping that-http://www.neilmulhollandracing.com/blog/ Taunton survives, because of the fact that Hobs dream is due to go up in the weights. Look at the comment he made on the 27th January regarding my selection-Beneath runs at Wolverhampton tonight. He has had a nice long break which I hope will have freshened him up and he is fit and well so I am hopeful that he will run better than he has up to now.  They gave him a long break, not because the horse thought he needed to have a gap year but because the trainer might have seen something which enforced that break. Read his blog with real interest and you will see that he’s really got one apple of his eye and that is Hobb’s Dream
In 20010 my selection ran off high marks of 80, His current mark is 55,  The reason why he is so short today is due to the fact that he once was rated 80, There is no justification in using that as a barometer for his price today? Because he has already been beaten by horses rated low as 50, Keep in mind that he is a 5 year old, so where will the improvement come from for him
Let’s go back and visit his only win to date, You may be asking what’s the point, Just Like what my kids say to me, when I ask them to eat their greens or tidy up their bedrooms, They tell me it’s only going to get untidy again- The point in visiting that race is to astatine if the handicapper was correct to allocate a mark of 80 or did he make a error of judgment. You can see that the horses he beat bar Lady Éclair have not achieved much, I gave the reason why you ignore Lady Éclair.
4
 Beneath 4/9F http://ui.racingpost.com/ico/tipping-success.gif
3
8-4 
*
*



Chased leader, led well over 1f out, soon pushed along, readily (op 4-7)





10
 Iptkaar (USA) 7/1Current mark 62
3
8-3over weightb1
75
*
*



Led, pushed along and headed well over 1f out, ridden and not quicken final furlong (op 5-1)





9
 Musical Mark 20/1 Current mark 65
3
8-4 b1
*
*






2
 Lady Eclair (IRE) 8/1 Current Mark 97
4
9-7 
*
*

Here you are going think wow, This was Lady Eclairs first run, My selection had the Benefit of one run and AW experience The trip would have been on the short side for lady, Ok let’s assume the conditions were perfect for Lady and the form is of substance, Then ask yourself why as my selection not won a race since this run, and why as he been betean by horses rated low as 50?


Always prominent, pushed along over 3f out, ridden over 2f out, one pace (tchd 9-1)





3
 Spirited Lady (IRE) 50/1Current mark 58
3
8-2 
*
*


Held up in mid-division, pushed along and weakened well over 1f out





1
 Head Hunted 10/1Current mark 68, Beaten 27L off 70
3
8-9over weight
*
*



Held up in rear, ridden and beaten well over 1f out





5
nk
 Single Lady 16/1 Current 58
3
8-2 
*
*



Slowly into stride, always in rear





7
11
 Suli Blew 33/1NO MARK, NOT RUN SINCE THIS RACE
4
9-7 
*
*



Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, behind final 2f





8
17
7
9-12 
*
*

NO MARK-9 YEAR OLD WELL BETEAN IN ALL ITS RACES



Top of Form
   
Bottom of Form
MONTH
OVERALL GB FLAT
PROFIT/LOSE
July 2008
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
August
0-5
-5.00
0-0
+0.00
September
0-2
-2.00
0-0
+0.00
October
0-2
-2.00
0-0
+0.00
February 2009
1-2
50%
+8.00
0-0
+0.00
March
0-3
-3.00
0-0
+0.00
April
0-4
-4.00
0-1
-1.00
May
0-3
-3.00
0-2
-2.00
June
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
July
0-3
-3.00
0-1
-1.00
August
1-3
33%
+10.00
0-2
-2.00
September
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
October
0-3
-3.00
0-0
+0.00
November
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
January 2010
0-2
-2.00
0-0
+0.00
February
0-2
-2.00
0-0
+0.00
March
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
April
0-4
-4.00
0-0
+0.00
May
0-1
-1.00
0-1
-1.00
July
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
August
0-2
-2.00
0-0
+0.00
November
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
February 2011
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
April
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
May
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
August
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
September
0-2
-2.00
0-0
+0.00
October
0-1
-1.00
0-0
+0.00
November
0-3
-3.00
0-1
-1.00
December
0-4
-4.00
0-2
-2.00
January 2012
0-6
-6.00
0-0
+0.00

Going to be doing Meydan, Waite for market to form then will post on blog, bar first race which is too open 

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