Selection-

12:00 » Kelso THU 29 DEC 2011 Lay-Trade- NODFORM RICHARD, Should drift-3.55-4

2.84 £18

2.86 £60

2.88 £35

2.9 £30

Already shortened this morning with bookmakers from 7/4 into 15/8 which is ridiculous, My selection on Video evidence would I feel find it hard to stay 2m never mind 2m6f, If this was a 2 horse race between Nodform V BRINDISI BREEZE over 2m the later would win hands down every time as he travels much better than Nodform, QUEL ELITE again on video evidence seems to have a better more left in the locker at the business end of his races

3.1 £70

3.15 £35

3.2 £41

I feel Quel Elite should come in for some solid support, Should shorten to around 2.78,If you look through his form quite a few horses who finished a  distance  behind him have come out and won, I think IR Nodform should touch 5-6 quite early

What can throw my calculations out the window?

Change of tactics, Now I can sense you becoming deflated, You could be thinking na he’s not confident, I am very confident that Nodform will not win, Once the race starts we have no control over how the race is run, our fate is in the hands of the jockeys (and someone above) Quel has never dictated the pace before, I can see him dictating the pace today  my concern would be that this kind of running style might not suite him this in turn could  present a window of opportunity  for my lay selection. Having  shed a  dark cloud over a nice blue sky let me enlighten you with some sunshine, My selection as won a NHF over 2m, That race was run at a fast pace if you have time to view that race you will see that the jockey had to work hard on him, View his other replays and you will understand why I feel he  is a none stayer.