selection

12:20 » Southwell TUE 29 NOV 2011FRENCH TIES, Trade/lay 1.93/1.94

Very impressive winner last time out, when you view the replay of his race you can be forgiven for thinking that he is the banker of the day.  I do feel he can be beaten, To date he has  not demonstrated one quality ingredient, No Norbert I’m talking about flour and eggs, BATTELING QUALITUTES  that’s what I am talking about, What do I mean?

What I mean he as not really shown that when put under pressure he can see off serious challenges, He as not shown that he can withstand the pressure and jump well at the same time. At today’s track the fences come in quick successions , Which means he wont have the luxury of time on his side, By that I mean he wont have the time  to get his jumping together.

After his win at Leicester the trainer made the following comment- That´ll have done his confidence good and dropping him back in trip has probably helped.  So will the step up to 3m help him today? No is the answer if you take that comment at face value. There are other negative factors which I feel will contribute to my selection not winning.

Jockey: poor strike rate over in chase races- Chase  6- 107, Poor strike rate in handicap chase races 3-77, Never won a chase race at track, Would you  sit in a plane where the pilot  only managed to land the plane 6 times from 107 tries?

PHAR AGAIN:  Using Red Law who French beat by IL as a yard stick Phar should have the beating of my selection, Red Law should have won that race had he not sulked - Set slow pace, headed after 5th, pressed winner from 9th, outpaced and 4 lengths down 2 out, rallied last, not go through final 100yds and finished weakly (op 7-1), Phar slammed Red Law by 12L,If you see Phar shorten it will be because of that one bit of form.

VON GALEN: Tumbled down the weights and as shown battling qualities, A very positive note is that Tom Scudamore rides him for the very first time, although win to run ratio is poor from a handicap perceptive he as a very good chance to beat my selection.

Trading: Because of his impressive win last time out I do feel my selection will shorten, Not so clever money could see him trading around 1.93-1.94 I can see him drifting out to around 2.20-2.38, The ground conditions could be a factor for him drifting, He as never won on ground this fast